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Markets have moved on from the question of whether central banks are done tightening. The debate now is about the pace of the descent — and here the consensus is too aggressive.

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The hiking cycle that defined 2022 and 2023 is firmly behind us. Every major central bank we cover has either paused or begun to ease, and the incoming data support that shift: core inflation is drifting back towards target across the advanced economies, and labour markets, while still tight, are loosening at the margin. But the market has run ahead of itself, and the last leg of disinflation is proving stickier than the headline numbers suggest.

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Markets have moved on from the question of whether central banks are done tightening. The debate now is about the pace of the descent — and here the consensus is too aggressive.

But the market has run ahead of itself. Pricing implies four cuts from the Fed over the next twelve months; we expect one further cut this year and a slower path thereafter, because the last leg of disinflation is proving stickier than the headline numbers suggest.

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